Jeff & Rachel discuss certain changes that are now accelerated because of the impacts of the crisis. Robots, cars, drugs, real estate, universities, mental health and more. As you expand your vision for the months and years ahead, you can identify opportunities to survive and thrive throughout great change.
Jeff & Rachel discuss certain changes that are now accelerated because of the impacts of the crisis. Robots, cars, drugs, real estate, universities, mental health and more. As you expand your vision for the months and years ahead, you can identify opportunities to survive and thrive throughout great change.
Jeff (00:00:03):
All right. It's time to take control of your money, your health, your time and your life. I am Jeff Nabers.
Rachel (00:00:14):
I'm Rachel Nabers.
Jeff (00:00:16):
Welcome to self-directed life. Okay, great. So here we are, episode six of the podcast and we've gone into interactive mode. And if you haven't noticed yet, you can go to self-directed life.com and you can leave us a message. Somebody did that already. Good old Leore from South Carolina.
Leore (00:00:39):
Hi Jeff, this is Leore from South Carolina. Wanted to ask your opinion about industries that might change forever after this pandemic is over. I know that's probably some industries that will emerge from it stronger than before and some will probably end. So I just wanted to know your input. Thanks.
Jeff (00:01:01):
Excellent. Thank you Leore, that is a great question. Number one, in terms of industries that grow, obviously biotech, right? So we need testing. You know, something interesting I was talking with somebody yesterday about is there is a theory that there's some sort of activity on the sun. Maybe something like sunspots that because we know certain cycles about solar activity, there were a group of scientists that were already predicting that 2019, 2020, maybe even some of the 2020's would be a higher incidence of pandemics. So one thing that we have to think about is that we might not just go back to a pandemic free life. It really might be that in the words of Eric Weinstein, he recently said on your opens podcast, he said, we're waking up from the big nap. And the big nap is where we just forgot about pandemics cause we haven't really had one that affected us in a very long time, over a hundred year.
Rachel (00:02:19):
So what you're saying is, it's probably not going to be another hundred years before the next one hits.
Jeff (00:02:26):
I don't know. There's just a school of thought and certain scientists who years ago said that around the 2020's, we would start having high incidents of pandemics. I hope they're wrong. It would be great to go back to having no pandemics, but they might be right. And I think that regardless of whether they're wrong or right, we obviously want a much larger portion than the 0.0001% of the money that we give to the government to take care of important things that keep us safe, to go to being prepared for a pandemic. Now we've had this painful experience and the pain of the experience isn't related to we have a virus, we have a pandemic--it's related to, we weren't prepared and we didn't react soon and swiftly enough. We didn't have enough equipment. We didn't have enough tests. You know, tests are, seems like, the absolute crucial element to almost every good way out of this. So yeah, biotech and the fact that testing is happening is largely related to companies and hospitals and universities putting together their own tests. And that's part of the reason why we've had a lot of tests.
Rachel (00:03:50):
The private companies too.
Jeff (00:03:52):
That's what I mean--specifically private companies, a lot of them. So yeah, biotech I think is going to emerge. A lot more money is going to be spent on biotech. There's going to be a much larger political will for being prepared for a pandemic.
Rachel (00:04:08):
So do you think that, you know, people that continue to go to colleges or trade schools or vocational schools, that biotech is going to take the place of sort of the popular major in college where maybe computer science is held at the last 10 or 15 years?
Jeff (00:04:25):
Great question. First, I want to give my overarching theme to this thesis. And that is the things that were going to take place, the changes that were going to take place between now and 2030 2035, are now going to take place between now and 2025.
Rachel (00:04:49):
Accelerated change.
Jeff (00:04:49):
Yeah, what's happening is the rate of change has now been accelerated. It's done. So where were we going to be in 2035 that we're now heading towards in five years instead of 15? Well, I don't think that universities and colleges will continue to be so exclusively dominant as a source of education. Right now the Supreme court is having hearings on zoom. Universities are having classes on zoom. Next year. who's going to pay $70,000 a year for access to zooms? Not very many people. So when you pay that $70,000 a year to a university, a lot of what you're paying for is impressive real estate. You're paying for big rec centers, you're paying for sports coach salaries, which there's another element is we've had a massive disruption to professional and college sports. Man, I grew up in San Antonio going into the hemisphere arena, which is no longer there. It's this tiny little arena. We would watch the spurs and when they would play we will rock you from Queen, and people stomped and clapped, the place was absolutely buzzing and it's incredible. It's like a a live concert. There's an energy right there. And with live sports and energy right there. And at this point it is uncertain as to whether or not we are going to be able to return to that. I hope we can, because I think it's really special, but if we have another pandemic or two in the 2020's, we may find ourselves legally not able to fill crowds with the people density that we use to.
Rachel (00:06:55):
Yeah. We had a friend of ours who's working to want to run a couple of committees for reopening one of the major cities sort of as a rolling reopening and they've talked about sports arenas and how they just ideas they're throwing around of how they might get the sports reopened and one idea they've proposed is every other row will be filled with people and every other seat. I think it was Delta or American airlines just released a policy that they are no longer selling middle seats anymore for their flights.
Jeff (00:07:28):
Well, they're also boarding from the back to the front, which is way better. It makes no sense. If you want to see a really cool video about airplane boarding, you can look on YouTube for a guy named CGP Grey, and he has a video about air airline boarding, which I never thought would have actually been that interesting but it's great. So yeah, you know, listen, over the last 50 years we've become accustomed to lots of ways that we jam a lot of people into tiny spaces and it never was a problem because of that big nap where for a while we just weren't a planet that had big pandemics. As it turns out, historically we ARE a planet that has big pandemics. Now we're reminded of it. Now all the ways that we've been packing people into cities, restaurants, arenas, I think we could see a disruption and that, and even if there is not a disruption to that, I think that, economically, getting in a car, driving across town, paying through the nose to sit in a seat for some thing that's also streamed online for free or nearly free is just going to be something that people can't swing. I mean obviously, different strokes for different folks, but a lot of people all of a sudden are going to be slashing things from their budget. So essentially you know, I think major changes happen when a friend of that we all know of as Tina comes along and Tina stands for, there is no alternative, right? So great example. Bitcoin, the people who understand Bitcoin the most and have the most positive expectancy for the future of Bitcoin and its value and its adoption are the people who know the most about Fiat money and the history and the economics of Fiat money. People who are really into Bitcoin simply know more about the flaws of our current legacy financial system. And so they don't think that Bitcoin's great because we're all going to be like super comfortable as sitting around and then jumping into Bitcoin because we like it. They simply think that people will go to Bitcoin because there is no alternative. These are people who have an imagination. And Einstein says imagination is more important than knowledge. And it is because it takes imagination to think--if you, every time you go to the grocery store and they say, you know, pay me in dollars, pay me in dollars. It really takes a little bit of creative thinking to imagine showing up to a grocery store one day and them saying, we don't accept dollars here anymore. We accept Bitcoin. And usually when big changes are made like that, you expect them to be made from the government. And then people say, why would the government ever tell you to use Bitcoin? Well, you've got gotta read your history cause that's not how the world works. The example I give all the time about this kind of thing is that 1920, 1921, Germany or Weimar Republic hyperinflation, there were two versions of the money which was called the Mark. There was the paper Mark or papier Mark, and then there was the gold Mark or geld Mark. And what happened was the gold Mark held its value.
Rachel (00:10:50):
because it was backed by gold?
Jeff (00:10:51):
Right, because they weren't increasing the supply.
Rachel (00:10:53):
Okay.
Jeff (00:10:54):
And your, you know, Mark in your hand wasn't becoming a smaller and smaller percentage of the money supply every day with the Goldmark. It was being stable. On the other hand, that papier Mark--which is the same concept as our current dollar and all of the major government currencies--every day that you would wake up in 1920 and 21, your percentage, if you had a million paper marks in your hand, no matter how many you had, your percentage of the total paper marks in circulation was becoming smaller and smaller and smaller. And so that's what happens with hyperinflation. Prices go up. So anyways, back to the laws, people didn't use the gold Mark because they were legally encouraged to, in fact, at the height of the hyperinflation, the government said it's illegal to not accept the paper Mark. Then you go into a merchant 's store and, like it's a bakery, selling a loaf of bread, he's sitting here going, look, if I follow this law and except that paper Mark, then I'm not even going to be able to take that money and buy the ingredients to bake the next loaf of bread, let alone keep my family alive. So people are faced with a Tina. There is no alternative. So to that Baker, there's no alternative. But to break the law, tell the customer, no, we don't accept paper marks here--Oh, but you have to. It's legally required--we still don't accept them. You need to give me a gold Mark. And then when there's no alternative, so then it becomes Tina for the buyer. So for the seller, he's going, well I can't even buy the ingredients with paper marks beause they're losing value. I need the gold marks. Then the buyer of that loaf of bread shows up to the bakery and can't get a loaf of bread. So now for him there is no alternative, but to get his hands on some gold marks. So then what happens? Then you have this thing called the network effect. Then the buyer of the loaf of bread, who's maybe selling women's shoes, all of a sudden is like, I need that loaf of bread. To get that loaf of bread. I need a gold Mark, to get a gold Mark, I have to only accept gold marks when I'm selling these shoes. And then so on and so forth. So the network updates itself and the network doesn't update itself from a top down fashion based on laws forever and ever and ever. In times of crisis, it updates itself based on necessity. So where did we get started on Tina?
Rachel (00:13:24):
Well, you were talking about Bitcoin as money.
Jeff (00:13:28):
Yeah. But where did we come before Bitcoin?
Rachel (00:13:32):
Well I was thinking about the higher education that I wanted to kind of talk about, but you were talking about how it's going to be affecting different industries.
Jeff (00:13:39):
Yeah. Do you remember which industry we were talking about?
Rachel (00:13:42):
No.
Jeff (00:13:42):
Well, let's go to the higher education, right?
Rachel (00:13:45):
Well, I have something to say about the higher education. Basically I have sort of a dichotomous thinking here, which is, one is we've been told for a long time that the pedigree of where we go to school has to do with us actually going to school there. And I think what we're learning here from online classes is, you know, Harvard and Yale and MIT have gone online, but the pedigree of your education is not decreased even though you're not, you know, walking the hallowed halls. So that's one area of thought is I think there's going to be--you know, Leore was asking what industries are going to change? How are they changing?
Jeff (00:14:25):
Education.
Rachel (00:14:27):
Education going a lot more online I think is a big thing.
Jeff (00:14:31):
Yeah. And I think what what's gonna happen is that visuals are very striking, right? So when your company has a logo on the top of the highest, highest skyscraper in your city, that puts an importance and a status on your company, right? And so all of these higher education institutions have had that because you go onto an impressive campus. And so what's happened is there was a time when college prepared you for life to a high degree. And there was a time where a college degree would definitely translate into making more money. And that has gone from being universally true to a high degree, most of the time, to being very questionable. You know, right now there are all kinds of people with the best degrees from the best universities who are unemployed and unemployable. And so, you know, I think what's going to happen is I think universities have been benefiting from all the impressiveness indicators, like big fancy campuses and just history--they're a brand. You know, Harvard is a brand. But now when you all of a sudden are behind a computer screen, then a lot of those indicators kind of fall by the wayside. And then it becomes more about the utility of it.
Rachel (00:16:15):
If the, well, which also then kind of leads me to, you know, the real estate is really expensive for these campuses. These big impressive,
Jeff (00:16:24):
Right.
Rachel (00:16:24):
Do you think the prices will go down for higher education then?
Jeff (00:16:27):
Yeah, well, enrollment's going to go down. And so they're either just going to have their revenue or the number of students coming through the universities, you know, fall dramatically or they're going to have to lower prices and make it more affordable. And by the way, college and medical care have been inflating in price higher than basically anything else. You know, people can't afford college. The only reason college has had any students for the last 10 years in the first place is because anybody could get money from the government to do that.
Rachel (00:17:02):
Which then resulted in crazy student loan debt, which is.
Jeff (00:17:05):
Exactly. Right, so this isn't a--so the first thing you have to understand is education is not a true marketplace. In a true marketplace, you would have buyers and sellers of education and then you'd have buyers and sellers of education financing. But the government has stepped in and given out all of this money on terms and to borrowers that would never be extended by real financing businesses. You know, your local community bank isn't offering to finance tuition on the terms and to as many borrowers with such low standards as the government is. So the government has stimulated education. So again, we're back to the B word. It's another bubble. There's a bubble in higher education because you know, higher education used to mean a lot more when it was a lot harder to get in and pay for it. Well now you can get in somewhere and you can pay for it with a student loan. But ultimately I think a lot of these kind of elements of trickery are not going to work with online education. And so what's happening is we're being thrust into the digital era much more dramatically than we were otherwise going to be. And now people who are working from home are going to go, you know, why do I have to drive across town? Why do I have to commute? Why do I have to deal with this terrible traffic? Why do I have to pollute the environment just to go and work in your box when I could work in my box? So a lot of people are going to want to continue to work from home. A lot of people are gonna want to get out of their house and as quickly as possible cause they don't like working from home. A lot of employers though are gonna realize that a lot more of their employees can do their job from home.
Rachel (00:18:53):
Well there's a real test in, in productivity right now too, isn't there? Because I think a lot of employers, you know, PQ, pre quarantine, maybe thought, Oh I can't let people work from home. How are they going to get stuff done? How am I going to know they're going to get enough stuff done?
Jeff (00:19:10):
And then Tina came along.
Rachel (00:19:11):
And then Tina came along. Exactly. And now you have to allow your employees, your staff to work from home. And first of all, what we're seeing is if you're not productive, your employer or your team is going to know.
Jeff (00:19:25):
That's the next element.
Rachel (00:19:26):
So cutting the fat, right?
Jeff (00:19:27):
So when you work out of a physical office, the what are people up to element, just like the universities, just like a giant rec center and a big library are very impressive, and then you pull out the checkbook and write a high tuition check, right? Well when you're a manager at a big corporation, and your employees that you manage, you can visually see and you look over and they look busy, then you're going to inherently go they seem to be pretty busy there. But when they go home, you have to measure their productivity in some sort of more.
Rachel (00:20:02):
Quantifiable way.
Jeff (00:20:03):
Quantifiable way. Exactly. And so I think part of what's going to happen here is because employers are having to objectively, quantifiably measure productivity, I think they're going to find out which employees are being productive and which aren't. And I think that there may be an unpleasant surprise, both through the workforce and through employers as to how many people were not all that productive.
Rachel (00:20:35):
So it seems like it's almost two prong. There's the employee perspective and then there's the employer perspective. So you have the employees now that they're seeing, maybe if they've been told, Oh, you can't from home because of X, Y, Z. Now that's being proven that they can. And then from the employer side, if they thought, I can't let my employees work from home, now they're seeing, well I can, and now I can judge productivity maybe more efficiently.
Jeff (00:20:59):
Yes, exactly. Now I want to make an arc that's, we're going to go ahead and we've only done five episodes before this. Now people are going to, we're going to get weird. All right? And the big arc is that we're going to land somewhere that not very many people are expecting, but I'm pretty confident that this is going to happen and that is, there's going to be a lot of unemployment and the unemployment is not going to be reversed very easily or quickly. You know, robots are going to start doing more jobs because of Tina. You know, like if you do food processing, robots are not going to be spreading viruses around to each other. And automation robots are already driving cars. Your software automation, there's hardware automation. So unemployment is going to go really high outside of just economic bubbles, just technology. Technology relieves people of their jobs so that they can go invent new jobs and inventing new jobs may or may not happen overnight, but the return, you know, the next 20 million jobs that are lost aren't going to be refound and rediscovered. For example when big shipping trucks become autonomously driven, like no shipping company is going to be able to afford to go back to paying a salary to a driver that can get sleepy and accidentally kill a bunch of people and can only work so many hours when that check doesn't need to be paid to the driverless truck that drives itself at the same cost or lower. So there's going to be a lot of unemployment and this is a real blow to our way of life because people, well, we measure our economy in jobs.
Rachel (00:23:04):
Not only that we measure our self worth in jobs. I mean, what's the first question that you ask a new person when you meet them? What do you do?
Jeff (00:23:11):
Nice to meet you. What's your name? Who cares? What do you do? Right? And you know, we see this. People get depressed when they retire. Hey, I thought this was supposed to be live happily ever after. No. A lot of people retire and become depressed. A lot of people retire and have health problems. A lot of people retire and have mental health problems. Well, you know, essentially a bunch of unemployed people are people who just prematurely retired. It's the same thing. So here's the connection that I see. Maybe I'll have egg on my face in few years. But I don't think I will. Lots of unemployment is going to create a mental health crisis for the reasons we just discussed. That mental health crisis is going to have to be addressed to avoid social unrest, to avoid a crime wave. And I predict that one of the things that will happen that would have happened by 2030 anyways is going to now happen by 2024 and that is the legalization of certain psychedelic drugs. So what a lot of people don't already know--some do, some don't--is that for the past 20 years, a lot of very credible institutions like Johns Hopkins university, NYU, and many universities and institutions have been very quietly but diligently collecting massive amounts of scientific evidence that some psychedelic drugs that were just painted with a broad brush and illegalized in the sixties and seventies are actually medicines that in some cases may be safer and more effective than the current pharmaceutical legal drugs. My prediction is the top of the list, number one, marching right behind cannabis or marijuana, following that path of medical card decriminalization, then it becomes recreationally legal, is psilocybin or the active ingredient in psychedelic mushrooms. The reason I say this is kind of top of the list is because I think this has got already the most studies that demonstrate its effectiveness to treat depression.
Rachel (00:25:40):
and PTSD.
Jeff (00:25:43):
PTSD. I mean, we're having a traumatic event right now.
Rachel (00:25:46):
Yeah. There could be massive collective PTSD.
Jeff (00:25:50):
Yeah. Well, I mean it's not necessarily collective, but yeah, there could be mass PTSD. And then I would say the other one right behind psilocybin is MDMA or what used to be for the street drug version called ecstasy. And I've looked at the literature. Michael Pollan wrote a great book called how to change your mind. And this is a guy who wasn't saying whacked out weird things. He wasn't wearing tinfoil hats. He's a very respected journalistic author who writes many books. His latest book is called how to change your mind. And he covers this story. The evidence is there. It's piling up. Not only are certain illegal drugs safer than legal drugs, some of those exact safe, illegal drugs are also more effective. In other words, it is in the interest of human harm reduction to allow these substances to go through the process of legalization so that we can reduce the number of deaths and psychiatric breaks that happen from people using the currently legal drugs, the pharmaceutical drugs that in some cases are actually not that safe--lots of side effects and not that effective. In fact, some of the mainstay pharmaceutical drugs that were approved in the 90s have for some reason, nobody knows why, become less effective in the last 10 or 20 years to the point where it's now estimated that if they had to go through their testing again, they would fail to beat the placebo.
Rachel (00:27:45):
Hmmm, but because they're already on the market just, Oh well people keep taking them.
Jeff (00:27:50):
Right. So we're talking about things like, you know, Prozac where some of these, there are scientific studies that suggest that they don't even work that much better than a sugar pill. But the reason why they're legal is because either they did in the nineties or those studies were messed with. Meanwhile, you know, we started to see studies years and years ago about, Hey, is psilocybin safe? Well, yeah, under these certain circumstances, it is. Is it effective? It's extremely effective. And then, you know, people were going, well, maybe they messed with this study. And then they went out and did it over and over and over. And essentially they've created this whole framework called psychedelic assisted psychotherapy or psychedelic assisted therapy. And that's where they combine things like psilocybin or MDMA with a session with a therapist and they're getting remarkable results. So this is an area of alternative thinking and development and progress that not a lot of people know much about. But when you have 30% unemployment in the suicide rate going up and our entire way of life under threat from a faceless virus that isn't even alive, then when you need to heal the mental health of a nation or a world, there is no alternative but to re-examine what really works. And the studies seem to show that a certain psychedelics work really well and are really safe. So that's my big honkin prediction that's probably a little bit controversial.
Rachel (00:29:33):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's probably, it's definitely still controversial. I think as time continues to pass, it's becoming less controversial. If we would've sat down and done this podcast in 2000, just talking about a path to recreational legalization of cannabis would have probably seen incredibly controversial. Was it last year? I think it was just last year the city of Denver decriminalized psilocybin so that that pathway has already been paved. And I think is taking it's baby steps. But yeah, I mean it is kind of wild because I mean, when you think about things like psychedelics, we think about sort of the reefer madness, or at least I do, think about the kind of the reefer madness---you know, people are going crazy from propaganda.
Jeff (00:30:22):
Yes, the propaganda. Now, to be clear.
Rachel (00:30:23):
This is your brain on drugs type of thing.
Jeff (00:30:25):
Yeah, exactly. Now, reefer madness was about marijuana.
Rachel (00:30:28):
Right.
Jeff (00:30:28):
But yeah, this is your brain on drugs, right? Dare to keep kids off drugs, right? So there was lots of indoctrination about how dangerous these drugs really are. And I don't want to make this whole podcast about psychedelic drugs, but just to touch on that from what I've seen in reading some of these books and some of literature on this and the articles, the really interesting thing about some of these psychedelics, particularly like psilocybin and MDMA or actually I think specifically psilocybin and LSD. LSD has a lot of stigma, right?
Rachel (00:31:05):
For sure.
Jeff (00:31:06):
So that's why I think psilocybin will become legal before LSD because we already eat mushrooms in our salads at whole foods or now at home, at our home restaurant, work from home. But you know, we're familiar with mushrooms and we know that people eat mushrooms. So, but it's this concept of set and setting. And what we're finding is that in the 60's when people went to go to Woodstock and took some, you know, psychedelic substance and danced around naked or whatever, that was a really non-optimal setting to be using these psychedelic substances.
Rachel (00:31:48):
Therapeutically, to be using them therapeutically.
Jeff (00:31:50):
Right. Yeah, so they do different things depending on, you know, the context. If somebody's like just running around at a concert with loud noises and strangers all around them, where all this therapeutic benefit is happening is the opposite of that in a quiet dark room with a guide who's usually a psychologist and they don't just show up at 10:00 AM and drop acid at 10:01 AM they usually go through a multistep process where they're psychologically prepared for therapeutic healing. So that's one.
Rachel (00:32:31):
So that's a potential healing mechanism for a potential resulting health crisis that could emerge as a result of mass unemployment is basically the train of thought that you're following.
Jeff (00:32:43):
Yeah. There's no quick easy solution to re employing people with the same jobs that are now a technologically obsolete. And the number and list of jobs that are technologically obsolete today is, you know, probably three times bigger than it was in January, 2020 because Tina made us work from home. Tina made us do all of these things. Tina made the Supreme court be held over zoom and just things were happening every day in every city that are completely wild and extraordinary, that never happened before, but it's really just all of these areas where people were using old technology is doing, well, this is how we always did things. Once Tina came along, oh, you can't do that cause that'll spread the virus and we have to protect ourselves. The judge can't, you know, take the next case if he's on an ICU bed next week. Right? So Tina came along, made us use technology and now the number of jobs that are becoming technologically obsolete, much bigger. So the next one is robots. By the way, robots are playing a really big part in this fight against the virus. These hospitals are sending robots in to use UV to disinfect the rooms and robots are delivering food to hospital beds. I mean, essentially, anytime a robot can take something from point a to a person at point B, then that means that people are not having to potentially spread the virus. So already robots are really on the front lines of helping. Then you've got robot cars. So.
Rachel (00:34:31):
Autonomous driving, is that what you mean by robot cars?
Jeff (00:34:33):
Yeah, exactly. And then combine that with electric cars where we're now reaching the point where the cost to operate an electric vehicle is becoming lower than the cost to operate a gas vehicle.
Rachel (00:34:50):
Shout out Elon Musk. We love you Elon.
Jeff (00:34:51):
Yeah, thanks Elon. So, but it's not just Elon Musk. As a result of what Tesla has been doing, Volkswagen is now heavily invested in an electric future.
Rachel (00:35:08):
Porsche, also,
Jeff (00:35:09):
Porsche says by 2024, half of their models are going to be electric models. Right now there's only one. And you know, four years from now it's going to be half of their models.
Rachel (00:35:21):
Didn't Ford say something like that too?
Jeff (00:35:23):
Ford is, everyone's going electric, It's electric or die. And in some parts of the world, it's simply becoming increasingly illegal to make and sell new gas vehicles. And already due to regulations that have already been happening, new gas vehicles have been increasingly boring and unimpressive and nothing really interesting or exciting is happening. And if anybody's ever driven a Tesla or been in a Tesla, you know that there's a lot of exciting stuff going on in terms of performance, in terms of practicality, in terms of efficiency. They're definitely at the top of the game for autonomous driving. So my prediction for automobiles is that car ownership is going to become unnecessary.
Rachel (00:36:16):
So that also affects the oil industry.
Jeff (00:36:19):
Definitely.
Rachel (00:36:20):
I mean, especially, you know, when you think about, we talked about this in a previous podcast episode, fuel is needed for everything, right? For making plastics
Jeff (00:36:30):
The cost of energy is a major component of the cost in any product that you buy.
Rachel (00:36:38):
So if we are going robotic, going electric, then that seems like, you know, electric cars, autonomous semi-trucks delivering food, robots creating packaging or distribution or whatnot, then that seems like that would be a big nail in the coffin of the oil industry.
Jeff (00:36:58):
Yeah, I think so. And that's going to be accelerated.
Rachel (00:37:03):
Or at least a huge decrease.
Jeff (00:37:04):
Yeah. I mean we're already seeing it right now. Everybody's sitting at home is burning less oil to drive to work and we already see the pollution maps, the pollution is getting way better and it's not because tens of millions of people are dying is because tens of millions of people are changing the way that they're living. And so this virus is actually teaching us that we can simply decide right now to pollute less. Now on the other side of the argument, I think there are governments and there are people who are trying to make the government make everybody go onto some carbon credit system. And I think that a lot of those are very bad ideas, right? But at the end of the day, the way things really work is people do what they want. All people are far more in the real world, like a rebellious teenager, than they are like a perfect, obedient model citizen--case in point, drug war. How did that work out? Drug use went up when they're illegal. Over in Portugal, when they relegalized drugs in the year 2006, I believe it was, all of the data since then, is drug abuse is lower when it's legal to get any drug, including heroin. Drug use, from what they can tell is down, drug deaths are down. So you know, essentially, we've been running our governments during the industrial era, like an authoritarian parent who has to beat their child into submission to behave the way that you want them to behave. And what we've learned is they're just not going to behave the way you want them to behave. And in the real world, what you need is people need to be inspired and educated and persuaded to do the right thing. And what we know is that people do the right thing when they're inspired and educated and persuaded. So you know, if you've got a good idea but you can't get anybody to do it, then either is not a good idea or you failed to implement a good persuasion strategy. Right? All kinds of companies were trying to make little micro computers, but Steve Jobs inspired his people to make an amazing iPhone and persuaded the world to use the amazing iPhone. And we're all using smart phones as a result of that. So, you know, if the government would have mandated or given tax benefits or some sort of credits or some sort of whatever shenanigans interfering with the marketplace to try to get people to use blackberries, they probably would have used iPhones even faster because nobody likes being told what to do, and government distrust is at an all time high all around the world. So the more that the government says do this, the more that people don't trust it. And that's actually part of the problem why we're in this situation right now is people didn't believe the warnings that said this virus is a real threat because when somebody came on CNN or MSNBC or whatever and said we've got to stay home, the virus is a threat. In the early parts of it, people were saying, you guys have been BS-ing us for the last 20 years. You've been crying wolf and a Wolf has never showed up a single damn time. You know, people were probably in the early stages going to concerts they didn't even want it to go to just to spite these authoritarian liars that are, you know, trying to control the media. So now I think we're going to see that people will do the right thing when given a good option. We already see it with Tesla sales. A lot of people want to make a positive impact on the environment, and model 3 sales have gone through the roof. The Tesla cyber truck reservations, the biggest product launch in all of history. Yeah. So let's see, what else did we want to cover here? So Leore said the industries that are going to see like a big surge and the industries that might just cease to exist.
Rachel (00:41:28):
What about car ownership?
Jeff (00:41:30):
Yeah.
Rachel (00:41:30):
We talked about electric cars, but if everyone's working from home, or has the option to work from home more often, will two-car households become one car households?
Jeff (00:41:40):
Well, here's an interesting thing. There's a funny line from the movie fight club. It's something like people go work jobs that they hate to get money to buy things that they don't need. Something like that.
Rachel (00:41:54):
Right?
Jeff (00:41:55):
And there's some truth to that, right? So you know, we have a car culture. When I was growing up, I had a Chevy Camaro pinned to my wall instead of a girl in a bikini. And I'm just like, Oh, look at that, look at that wheel. And my probably most anticipated moment of my life was the day I got my driver's license. And then I got my driver's license and I did not drive the speed limit.
Rachel (00:42:21):
Did you ever get the Camaro?
Jeff (00:42:23):
Yeah, I got the Camaro and I got another and I've had a lot of really fun cars because I grew up at what seemed like the height of car culture. Young kids today don't even want to get their license.
Rachel (00:42:38):
Well, there's something interesting to the social aspect of this too. So I want to circle back to the economic impacts of a fall of car ownership. But also, you know, part of what I think is happening when people are owning cars, or at least young people, is there's sort of like a signaling, like a peacocking or a signal of success or something. If you're just staying at home, that's not how you signal success to somebody.
Jeff (00:42:59):
Here's another thing too. You know what people have been signaling or telegraphing a lot more recently. Sports cars, for example, sports car sales are in the toilet. There are some amazing sports cars out there and they're not selling. Meanwhile, it seems like there's a Prius on every corner. So what's happening is that telegraphing I care about the environment, gets you more points in today's culture than telegraphing whatever you Telegraph when you drive a Porsche convertible. In fact, there's a lot of people who are like, I would never be caught dead in a porch convertible cause only douchebags drive a Porsche convertible. And so the culture is changing. So, you know, we had this you know, this period of time where we had cars that had features that were not utilitarian. I mean, think about anybody who drove, we were in Scottsdale, 99% of Porsches out here are driven by people who've never gotten the RPMs over 3,500.
Rachel (00:44:13):
Yeah. They don't buy them because they're a race car driver taking them to the track.
Jeff (00:44:17):
It' a travesty. It's not just that they don't take them to the track, it's that they don't even do anything with them. They drive their car around in a way that a Prius would have performed perfectly for them. So they're getting them only for the imagery of it. But you know, all in all, these sales of these sports cars are way down and the sales of really basic cars are way up. People want like a Volkswagen golf or a Nissan leaf, or a Tesla model three, which you know, is actually pretty, the Tesla has, has done something amazing where it's pretty good looking. It's high tech, it's the safest car that's ever been made in the history of car safety and it's extremely fast. So it's a lot of bang for your buck without making any sacrifices. And that's why it's selling so well. And now there's going to be more options on the electric front from VW, from Ford, from a lot of others. So ultimately, then you take the economic impacts. The economic impacts are, it is so much more expensive to have a car payment, to have an insurance payment, to have to buy a house with a garage or rent a house with a garage to pay for traffic tickets.
Rachel (00:45:40):
Maintenance.
Jeff (00:45:41):
To pay for maintenance, to pay for oil changes to pay for parking in a major city. So, for this reason already, I think car ownership was on the decline, particularly in urban areas and people were Ubering. But then now when you add in automation, so the two
Rachel (00:46:00):
Is it going to be like shared car ownership, do you think?
Jeff (00:46:04):
No, I think we're going to end up with a giant fleet of autonomous electric vehicles, and that whenever you want to go from any point to any other point, you just open up your phone and go to your Uber app or your Tesla app and a car comes in and picks you up.
Rachel (00:46:19):
Because it is from an asset perspective, like a really terrible ROI to have a car, right? You leave it at home, it's parked in your garage, you drive to work, it's parked at your office parking lot all day long. You drive home. Like it's not actually, the car is not being used. it's for its utilitous purpose.
Jeff (00:46:37):
Right, it's been frivolous. Okay. And in the industrial era, America led the way in being frivolous and it was fun and we had a good party. But now there's like almost 8 billion people and we've got to start figuring out a sustainable way to live. And there are all these extreme viewpoints of environmentalists wanting to, you know, pretty much shut down the economy and make us all eat cans of tuna. And then there are people who just are like, who cares about the planet? The planet was made for us. And I think the smarter way is probably some sort of middle ground, some sort of middle path. I think that, you know, I don't want to get into the environmental debate, but I guess I will. So, in the environmental debate, I think that we really don't know enough about the earth cycles to know exactly what impact we're having on it. I think to jump to a conclusion that says we have to make this illegal or that illegal is a little bit dangerous. At the same time, I think that to say that there's no problem with resource depletion, everything's fine is also crazy. You know, I think probably, what's probably a bigger issue than CO2 is oceans and the depletion of the rain forest. Right? So We're going to wrap up with these predictions here in just a moment after a message from our sponsors.
New Speaker (00:48:24):
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Rachel (00:49:30):
And we're back. So just to recap, we've talked about some future predictions for multiple markets and industries, higher education.
Jeff (00:49:38):
Yeah, go through them. I'll just do a one sentence recap.
Rachel (00:49:41):
Okay. So higher education
Jeff (00:49:44):
Prices are going to come way down. They're gonna experience much greater competition and alternative sources of education are going to continue to rise.
Rachel (00:49:53):
Employment.
Jeff (00:49:56):
The jobs that we've had, many of them are going to be lost and not going to come back.
Rachel (00:50:02):
And the resultant mental health crisis.
Jeff (00:50:04):
Mental health crisis, probably one of the best bets for treating the mental mental health crisis will be the accelerated path of legalization of psychedelics such as psilocybin, which are the magic mushrooms, and MDMA formerly known as ecstasy.
Rachel (00:50:26):
Big oil
Jeff (00:50:29):
Toast.
Rachel (00:50:30):
And the automobile industry.
Jeff (00:50:31):
Transportation as a service. And now let's talk about the biggest answer to Leore's question. Some of the big wins are going to be things that we just can't see. It's going to be things that, so you have to have mass unemployment to have people who've got the time to think about their ideas. Like if you've got somebody who's driving an Uber car around right now and they're chatting up their person that they're driving around with the same basic conversation that they have with everyone. Oh, what are you doing? You local? No. Okay. Well, you're in town from listening. Hmm. Yeah. How's that golf tournament going? Oh yeah, man. Okay. Have a good one. Thanks. Thanks. Okay. Hope he tips me. All right. Now take that person and they're displaced by autonomous driving vehicles. Now they're at home. Oh, let's have a little chapter on real estate here before we wrap up.
Rachel (00:51:41):
Yeah, definitely.
Jeff (00:51:42):
Now they're at home. Maybe they're in their parent's home. Maybe they're in their kid's home. A lot of sacrifices will be made due to economic hardship. Okay. Now they're on the ropes. Now they're having that yearning to have an identity, to have a purpose, to have a part to play in this world, is going to be yearning a lot more directly than when they were busy driving people around, when cars needed to be driven. So that empty space of no distractions where they're just looking themselves in the mirror and they're just thinking, what am I going to do with myself? Then all of a sudden ideas spread like viruses too, right? That's why things go viral online. Then when somebody has a good idea, they have a breakthrough. They make a YouTube video about it, it gets 150 million views, thousands of bloggers blog about it. Even that little warehouse over there down the road that has flickering lights in it that they're still doing the last CNN broadcast in picks up on the story of that new thing that the one guy started doing, that's a new way of doing things that that displaced Uber driver can now take part in, whatever that is. So there is going to be a lot of innovation. The eventual result I think is going to be prosperity like we've never seen before. If you look at some big innovations like Airbnb, that's a pretty big innovation, you know, and it changed our way of life. We went from like, I would never let a stranger in my house or I would never go rent a room in a stranger's house. Why would I do that? Bam. 2008 financial crisis. Everyone's on the ropes. Then it's like, Hey, you, who can't afford their mortgage? You, who lost your job? Would you take money to let somebody go sleep in that empty room in your house? What's the answer?
Rachel (00:53:56):
Of course I would.
Jeff (00:53:57):
Hell yeah, and Hey you, would you like to drive strangers around in your car for money? Hey, you over there. Would you like this guy to drive you around in his what have you got Ford Taurus? Before 2008--I don't know what you're talking. No, I have my own car. No, I wouldn't let that guy in my car don't even know him. Now, heck yes, of course. So you know, people get caught up in their patterns of how they do things. Hey, why are you doing things that way? Well, it the way I've always done it. Why would I change? When a financial crisis comes along, it becomes the answer to why would I change? Why would I let people in my house? Because we're in a financial crisis and you need the money. Why would I drive some people around part time on the weekends because we're in a financial crisis and you needed some money. Then, all of a sudden, largely due to stimulus in a bubble, but ,either way, we came out of that financial crisis and had the roaring 2010's--maybe it took til 2012 to start, but the 20 teens, right? They were roaring the whole the whole time pretty much in a lot of ways. People didn't stop doing Airbnb. Once you let people experience something that breaks their old belief, then the old belief never goes back to the way it was. So when people can buy a membership to an electric car, taxi service and just set up their errands for the week, you know, schedule it or do it impromptu, like Uber or whatever, because we're in a financial crisis and they can't afford a car, they're never going to go back to buying a car just to do things in a less efficient way. You know, if you live in Seattle, and every time you drive anywhere, you're going to pay $20 for parking. You're going to have like hundreds of dollars a month for a parking bill. You're not going to go back to that later. So I think you know, ultimately, you know on the cars, cars are still going to be out there, but it's going to be like horses. Nobody rides a horse to work anymore, but there are still horses.
Rachel (00:56:11):
It's a recreation.
Jeff (00:56:11):
Yeah, it's a hobby. It's a pastime. But the roads are made for cars, not horses. Now it, by 2030 the roads are going to be made for autonomous cars. So there'd probably be some breakthroughs in technology that helped out with different sensors and different networks of the cars can opt into. All right, so we went down the car, rabbit hole.
Rachel (00:56:32):
What about real estate?
Jeff (00:56:32):
Real estate. This is a big one. Right now, if you have traveled around the world, then you have noticed a difference in the amount of square feet that an American thinks they need for their home versus the other 96% of the world. Americans have way more square feet. Now we're in this financial crisis. It's, I think not going to be able to be control z'd--I think that it's going to keep happening and in the traditional measures of things it's going to get worse. Now, back to the mental health thing too. I think that a lot of people, as it turns out, we're probably gonna find were miserable in their jobs anyway and they were only doing their jobs to get the money to be able to live a sustainable life. Now that they can't go work in a miserable job to trade their life for the money just to be able to stay alive, they're going to find new ways of sustaining themselves and people are going to have to get creative. People are gonna have to make adjustments. People are going to have to make various sacrifices. Many sacrifices will be temporary. When you go to another country, not only do people have less square feet in the home, they have more generations in that home. Guess what? Most baby boomers can't even begin to pay for retirement. Right? So what are they going to do?
Rachel (00:57:58):
Move in with their kids maybe?
Jeff (00:58:00):
Yeah. I mean you only need so many Walmart greeters and you don't need greeters if everybody going into Walmart are just a delivery service delivering groceries to people who are just sitting in their home.
Rachel (00:58:11):
I mean, I think that's kind of sweet in a way, isn't it? You know, in the United States we've really boxed away, shut away our elders in a lot of ways, putting them in assisted living homes or something. There's a lot of you know, being cut off from older generations and I think it could be very sweet to have that return of generations back to one another. You know, if you're, if you're a younger parent or have a young child being able to have your own family helping to care for your child and your child rearing, that sounds great.
Jeff (00:58:41):
Absolutely. There's all kinds of fraud perpetrated on seniors because they're lonely, and they're lonely because we're this weird little, you know, slice of the human culture that, you know, separates out every generation. And it's because we could afford to and we chose to. And I think as a society we will not be able to afford to. In real estate, I think that probably the worst position real estate is office buildings because of people who currently work jobs in an office and that job is going to be lost and not replaced. Then you've got people who work jobs in an office and now you have to work from home to cut the overhead to compete with the competitor across the street or down the road. So office buildings are probably the most screwed.
Rachel (00:59:34):
You think those will be maybe like repurposed into apartments and stuff?
Jeff (00:59:37):
Exactly.
Rachel (00:59:38):
That's interesting.
Jeff (00:59:38):
We saw condo conversions were a big thing in the real estate bubble of the mid two thousands. Right? So the economics, all of a sudden there was this period of time where you could go, Hmm, I can take this apartment building and I can go down and get the whole thing, get the paperwork changed around on it to where every unit is deeded individually. Maybe I'll spruce it up a little bit, little facade things, you know, redo the siding, re surface the parking lot, spruce the pool up a little bit. And now the economics were such that then you sell what were apartments to rent as condos to own or at least condos to go into debt with a mortgage to pretend to own. And there is this huge fat profit margin because of the real estate bubble that was happening. So in 2006, you could make millions and millions of dollars just running around buying apartment complexes, turning them into condos with or without making improvements and you would make a lot of money. Well, I think the demand for office buildings is going to go down so much. They're going to be so vacant. There's going to be so much pain in the office commercial real estate space that you're going to be able to buy office buildings very cheap because the price of a property, the value of a property in commercial real estate is based on.
Rachel (01:01:10):
Comps.
Jeff (01:01:10):
No, that's residential.
Rachel (01:01:13):
Oh, it's based on.
Jeff (01:01:14):
income.
Rachel (01:01:15):
Ah, okay.
Jeff (01:01:15):
What's the income of a vacant building? Zero. Or, if you take a big office complex and it used to be 80% occupied, now it's 20% occupied. And maybe this is a dramatic scenario, but, if the occupancy goes down.
Rachel (01:01:32):
or you start losing anchor tenants in these strip centers and stuff because the big boxes have to start closing locations or something like that, depending on how consumerism changes.
Jeff (01:01:44):
Right. So look, in commercial real estate, anytime you can buy buildings that are financially performing poorly because they're very vacant and their occupancy rate is low, anytime you can figure out how can I get more occupancy here? How can I get more tenants? Well, that's going to make more income. The value is gonna go up and you're going to be able to eventually flip it for a big profit. And if you use leverage and you're borrowing money for just you know, normal interest rates like five or 10% or these crazy low interest rates, like 1%, then using leverage, it's very profitable. So that's a problem in the marketplace is, Oh gosh, we don't really need these offices anymore. And that problem becomes an opportunity for entrepreneurial thinkers and entrepreneurial thinker is going to go around, he's going to find office buildings, he's going to wait until the blood is just pouring out on the streets from people who own these office buildings. They're going to buy them for the lowest possible price they can possibly buy them for. Usually it will be accompanied by headlines in newspapers that say things like, you know, office buildings are dead or whatever, because they will be, largely, or at least relatively, and when they buy at that completely low price and then just go in there and knock some walls down and reconfigure it to be the kind of residential units that people need, which are probably going to be smaller and very efficient. When you go out in the rest of the world. Real estate's very efficient. The way that the plumbing works, the way that the electricity works. It's all very different. Like if you go to Europe, than it is in the U S because their power is more expensive, it has to be more efficient. So everything's more efficient. We're going to start being more efficient too in the United States, and office buildings, I think, are going to turn into some other form of real estate, from this viewpoint, probably residential. And yeah, and I think people, generations are going to move in with each other. I think siblings are going to move in with each other, I think. I think you may actually see houses have more than one family in it. And you know, like let's say you take a look at your own street in your own neighborhood, you know, if half of the families moved in to the other house, which you know, again, coming from where we're coming, it's like there's no room for that. But Tina's going to come along and it's going to happen. People are going to do things that they never would have done before because Tina, there is no alternative. So if half the people in the neighborhood, or if all the people of your current neighborhood end up living in half the houses of the neighborhood, then you've got that vacancy and that means rent and prices are going to come down. So at the end of the day with real estate, the question is just what's going to happen to demand? And the question becomes what is demand and demand is the ability and willingness to pay. And in a financial crisis, the ability to pay is significantly reduced. And then people who do have the ability to pay, have a buyer's market or a renter's market, and then their willingness to pay is going to be based on competition. So lots of vacancy prices and rents come down. And I think that they might stay down for a while because we're just coming out of a very extraordinary age of consumerism and frivolous living. But I think it's a great time back to the psychology side to examine what really makes us happy. And the consumerism economy had this lie baked in where spending makes you happy. But if you really examine your spending, you'll notice that your ability to spend a certain amount definitely creates a comfort and a certain amount of happiness. But then there's some point that beyond that, it doesn't, Anybody who's made a lot of money has experienced that. Anybody who's ever made a lot of money and like maybe didn't come from money thought that, you know, if I could just make you know, $100,000 a year, if I could just make $1 million a year, then I'll live happily ever after. And when they get there, they're going to find out that money doesn't buy happiness. But being poor doesn't make you happy either. There's something else. And I think that with consumerism, everybody was just chasing more and more money to buy more and more stuff that wasn't making them happy in hopes that at some point some of this stuff would somehow make them happy. And you know, now I think this financial crisis is putting an end to that way of life. And so a lot of people might look at that go, man, that really, that's just terrible. But at the same time, I think it's an opportunity and I think it's an opportunity to take a more honest look about what is it that really makes me happy. And I think that comes down to one of the four major areas of the self directed life that is probably the most neglected, which is relationships. And I think the real key to happiness is to have meaningful relationships. You know, if somebody depends on you, somebody lights up when they see you. If somebody misses you when you're gone, if somebody's talking about how great you are when you're gone, if somebody's you know, got a scholarship because of your philanthropy or that when you do something for other people, that's what makes you happy. And people who don't do anything for other people and they're just in gimme gimme gimme mode are usually the most miserable. But we've been operating our economy like gimme gimme gimme makes you happy and it's a lie. So by the end of this decade, we're going to have to have a better way of measuring the economy. It can't just be the amount of consumption. It can't just be the jobs. You know, a job is good, really? What about a job that somebody is completely fulfilled and rewarded and gratified do versus another job that somebody just wants to kill themselves, they hate it so much? Both are jobs and treated equally as an important good thing in the current paradigm of economic statistics. And I think by the end of this decade, we're going to pull apart the nuances of some of these assumptions that we've been having that are just plain wrong. So we're going to be not owning cars as much as a society. We're going to be riding in cars. Cars are going to be electric, pollution is going to go way down. People are going to have a compelling persuasion on why to on-purpose and without being forced to make choices that are more sustainable for humans on planet earth. Psychedelics are going to get legalized. It's going to help solve a mental health crisis that is solved by an unemployment crisis. And as robots take more and more and more jobs, there's gonna be enough people sitting around going, what do we do with ourselves? And from the looks of it, if they take some psychedelics, it's not just going to be to habitually take LSD every night the way they used to have a beer. It's normally, what looks like is going to happen. It's going to cause people to really search inward and find a new chapter in their life.
Rachel (01:09:54):
This could spawn great innovation too.
Jeff (01:09:55):
I think it's going to be a new Renaissance. It's going to be, in a way, it's going to be a new dark ages followed by a new Renaissance. And there's gonna be a lot of robots and there's probably gonna be a whole host of other things that are very different. But at the end of the day, let's end on this. At the end of the day, what's going to happen is it's going to become exposed what mindset you have and what it does to your life and those around you. Because there are two basic mindsets. There's the fixed mindset. The fixed mindset basically just says, life is an accident. You are the way that you are. It's all in your genes. Everything's determined. Nothing you do is ever going to have any effect on anything. You're just floating down a river. It is what it is. Then you die and you wonder why you ever even here in the first place. Okay. In the fixed mindset, you know, when you run into a challenge you basically go, it's because I'm not good enough. And then you get depressed and you become part of the mental health crisis. The other mindset is the growth mindset. In the growth mindset, every day you wake and you say, every day in every way I am getting better or I have an opportunity to learn and grow and change. The fixed mindset person fears change or simply rejects change because they think that it's not possible. The growth mindset person embraces change, and is a perennial student--always wants to learn new things, always wants to have new experiences. And so essentially, so many people have the fixed mindset because it was indoctrinated into them throughout school and parents and you know, different ways that they were raised. And in the fixed mindset when change happens, you go, Oh no, we've got to stop this. And there's no way to stop these trends that are happening any more than you can try to make everybody go back to riding horses around instead of drive cars. And in the growth mindset, you look at what's changing and you go, all right, you know, I'm in a boat and there are winds of change. Now let's set my sail. And there's going to be a little bit of discomfort. And then you're going to get through it and you're going to learn. And so today's end message with all these predictions are change is obviously accelerating and it's time to examine. Have you been sometimes using the fixed mindset? Are you afraid of change? Are you trying to just keep doing things the same way forever and ever? And then you're resisting the changes that you can't stop? Or are you using the growth mindset and embracing change? So that's it. By the way, if you have the fixed mindset, you can instantly just decide to utilize the growth mindset and change to having the growth mindset. And there's a great book by Carol Dweck, a psychologist that wrote a book called Mindset. Check it out on Amazon. That's it for today. Thanks for the great question from Leore, and I know other people were asking a similar question. In future episodes we will be talking about, you know, how you can do, how you can make investments based on these trends. How can you protect your current investments from being on the wrong side of these trends and how can you make new investments to be on the right side of these trends?
Rachel (01:13:24):
And if you're not subscribed already, make sure that you follow us at self-directed life.com. That's where you can sign up to be notified of new episodes that are coming out. Also, if you have questions that you want us to address, you can submit those questions right on self-directed life.com.
Jeff (01:13:40):
All right, and quick update. We are now both on Google podcasts and Apple podcasts or regardless of which kind of device or platform you like, you can go to self-directed life.com and subscribe on your platform of choice. Google, Apple, Spotify, whatever you want. It's all right there. Thanks. Talk to you soon. See you in the next episode.